Russo-Ukrainian War - 2022 Edition Part 1

Dave said:

The way the Russian tanks seem to just pop apart

https://twitter.com/x/status/1510624029685780481

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Fulcrum29 said:

I don’t trust these movements for being a retreat. Listening to the former commander of the US Special Operations Command in Europe, retired US Army Major General Mike Repass, retired general, and former Vice Chief of Staff of the United States Army Jack Keane, who is part of The Institute for the Study of War, the public, NATO and Ukraine shouldn’t fall for the inevitable Russian ruse, and I agree, as well with their assessments. Besides, NATO, themselves warned,

NATO chief warns attacks in Ukraine will continue: This is not a "real withdrawal of Russian forces"

The horrors of Russia's occupation are becoming clear as Ukrainian forces retake the greater Kyiv area.

edition.cnn.com

To quote Repass,

Retired Army major general: The Russian military invasion has peaked | CNN

Vladimir Putin's five-week long invasion of Ukraine has peaked, with Russian forces no longer possessing enough combat power to continue to advance, according to one close observer of the military situation.

edition.cnn.com

if you remove any disseminated PSYOPS, a term I wished to have avoided, and quote Repass's remark,



then from an online spectator's perspective, our view could possibly be blurred and muddied by the conduct of information wars.

Keane's position is that it is now the time for NATO to join the fight, which I agree with, but that NATO is afraid of upsetting the Putin regime.

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MiW said:

Zelenskiy vows to investigate and prosecute all Russian ‘crimes’ in Ukraine – as it happened

This live blog is now closed

www.theguardian.com

The sequel of the Russian invasion of Ukraine - 2014 -

Russo-Ukrainian War - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

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Institute for the Study of War

Continuing Russian operations along their new main effort in eastern Ukraine made little progress on April 2, and Russian forces likely require some time to redeploy and integrate reinforcements from other axes. Ukrainian forces repelled likely

www.understandingwar.org

RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, APRIL 2​

Mason Clark, George Barros, and Karolina Hird​

April 2, 5:00 pm ET​

Continuing Russian operations along their new main effort in eastern Ukraine made little progress on April 2, and Russian forces likely require some time to redeploy and integrate reinforcements from other axes. Ukrainian forces repelled likely large-scale Russian assaults in Donbas on April 2 and inflicted heavy casualties. Russian forces continued to capture territory in central Mariupol and will likely capture the city in the coming days. Russian units around Kyiv and in northeastern Ukraine continued to successfully withdraw into Belarus and Russia, and heavy mining in previously Russian-occupied areas is forcing Ukrainian forces to conduct slow clearing operations.

However, the Russian units withdrawn from northeastern Ukraine for redeployment to eastern Ukraine are heavily damaged. Russian forces likely require an extensive operational pause to refit existing units in Donbas, refit and redeploy reinforcements from other axes, and integrate these forces—pulled from several military districts that have not yet operated on a single axis—into a cohesive fighting force. We have observed no indicators of Russian plans to carry out such a pause, and Russian forces will likely fail to break through Ukrainian defenses if they continue to steadily funnel already damaged units into fighting in eastern Ukraine.

Key Takeaways

• Russian forces continued to capture territory in central Mariupol on April 2 and will likely capture the city within days.
• Ukrainian forces repelled several possibly large-scale Russian assaults in Donbas, claiming to destroy almost 70 Russian vehicles.
• Russian forces will likely require a lengthy operational pause to integrate reinforcements into existing force structures in eastern Ukraine and enable successful operations but appear unlikely to do so and will continue to bleed their forces in ineffective daily attacks.
• Russian forces in Izyum conducted an operational pause after successfully capturing the city on April 1 and will likely resume offensive operations to link up with Russian forces in Donbas in the coming days.
• Russia continued to withdraw forces from the Kyiv axis into Belarus and Russia. Ukrainian forces primarily conducted operations to sweep and clear previously Russian-occupied territory.
• Ukrainian forces likely repelled limited Russian attacks in Kherson Oblast.
• The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces have rendered two-thirds of the 75 Russian Battalion Tactical Groups it assesses have fought in Ukraine either temporarily or permanently combat ineffective.

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Immediate items to watch

• Russian forces will likely capture Mariupol or force the city to capitulate within the coming days;
• Russian forces conducted an operational pause after capturing Izyum on April 1 and will likely leverage reinforcements redeployed from northern Ukraine to renew an offensive through Slovyansk to link up with Russian forces in Luhansk Oblast in the coming days;
• Russian forces withdrawn from the Kyiv axis are unlikely to provide meaningful combat power in eastern Ukraine in the coming days.
• Sustained Ukrainian counteroffensives northwest of Kyiv will likely push Russian forces out of Kyiv Oblast in the next 48 hours.

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Fulcrum29 said:

My view is simply, at this time, that NATO should join the fight for pushing back the Russian offence to the line of aggression held before the invasion of Ukraine on February 24th for avoiding an increase of tension in Eastern and Southern Ukraine which may swing the balance of war. If both sides are suffering attrition, then one side may give before an agreement is reached, irrespective of how many troops and equipment they can muster. Russia has shifted their strategy, Kyiv is not a goal at the moment, but could still be a tertiary objective if they gain the momentum. It is a danger I wish to point out. We can't measure Ukraine's attrition because we aren't exposed to it.

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