Rooftop solar explosion in South Africa

Rooftop solar generation has grown significantly in South Africa, with generation numbers increasing from 2,264MW in July 2022 to 5,440MW in March 2024.

This is according to Eskom’s Generation Adequacy Report for Week 15 of 2024, which includes estimations of rooftop solar generation.

The document shows that private solar generation increased slowly between July and November 2022, with Eskom’s estimations rising by roughly 140MW.

It then rose rapidly from 2,404.50MW in November 2022 to over 5,000MW in November 2023.

Most recently, Eskom estimated that rooftop solar generation sat at 5,440MW in February and March 2024.

However, it noted that its monthly figures don’t necessarily represent an increase in the number of installations for that month.

“If there is a big jump from month to month it is mainly due to the high number of cloudy days during the latter month, not necessarily due to the number of installations in that month,” the power utility said.

“It would very likely have been distributed in the preceding few months.”

The chart below shows the rooftop solar generation Eskom tracked July 2022 to March 2024.

Eskom’s estimates include a breakdown of rooftop solar for each province.

Gauteng’s rooftop solar generation contributes the most to reducing demand on the power grid, making up nearly 25% of the country’s total.

Eskom’s estimates for Gauteng increased from 790.60MW in July 2022 to 1,503.70MW in March 2023.

KwaZulu-Natal businesses and households with rooftop installations contribute the next most, with its generation figures reaching 810.90MW in July 2024.

The Western Cape’s estimated 642.40MW of rooftop solar generation is the third highest. The figure increased by nearly 350% from 145.50MW in July 2022.

The solar panel tax rebates announced by Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana in February 2023 likely contributed to the increase in rooftop solar generation in South Africa.

The solar tax rebate incentive kicked off on 1 March 2023, allowing tax-paying South Africans to claim 25% back on the tax they paid for their new solar panels, up to a maximum of R15,000.

This excluded inverters and batteries.

South African businesses could deduct 50% of their solar panel costs in the first year, 30% in the second, and 20% in the third year on qualifying investments above 1MW of generation.

Unfortunately, the incentive for households didn’t contribute as much as many would have hoped.

AWPower’s Christiaan Hattingh recently told MyBroadband that the load-shedding situation and the excitement surrounding the rebates were great for installers.

However, people began to realise that the incentive wasn’t that great and didn’t have much impact.

“I don’t think it’s necessarily a train smash. When it was first released, it sounded on paper like a great deal,” said Hattingh.

“It was good at the time, but I think when people realised that the incentive itself isn’t really that great, it really didn’t have much of an effect.”

“The ending of the tax rebate I don’t think is really going to make a big difference. The combination of load-shedding and also the hype around it last year made for a good time in the solar industry for installers,” he added.

The table below summarises Eskom’s rooftop solar generation estimates per province from July 2022 to March 2024. Figures are in megawatts (MW).